Covid-19: reading the epidemiological situation of Dr. Merabet

After several weeks of calm, the reversal of the trend in the epidemiological situation for Covid-19 was confirmed this month of May.

The number of new daily cases rose to 230 on Thursday 26 May. As for active cases, it exceeded 1,100. The positivity rate is greater than 2% and the reproduction rate (RT) is 1.14.

Nothing in the current situation justifies real concern. However, the Ministry of Health issued a message last night urging Professor Khalid Ait Taleb, the responsible minister, to be vigilant about the increase in cases.

The Minister and the Ministry of Health exercise their warning role and call for greater vigilance to avoid a sharp deterioration of the epidemiological situation.

Mainly family clusters

That said, what should we think about the current context? Are we on the threshold of a new wave?

“In a wave cycle, we first witness a latency period with sporadic cases, then the emergence of small clusters, followed by large clusters, until we reach proven community transmission,” comments Dr. Mouad Merabet, coordinator of the national, from Médias24 from Médias24. Public Health Emergency Response Center in the Ministry of Health.

“Unfortunately, the resurgence of cases is confirmed. We notice family clusters as well as in some companies. At the moment, these are small clusters – the largest did not exceed 13 cases “, clarifies our interlocutor.

As a reminder, during previous waves, some clusters had reached 50 or even 100 confirmed cases linked to the same cluster. We are not there yet.

Besides, tests performed in the current period is either within the framework of the study of the clusters carried out by the health authorities or by symptomatic persons or for travel purposes.

Another characteristic remarked: “The evolution of the resurgence cases are slower and less serious “ currently. “The number of intensive care units is low. We see almost no daily deaths, ”says Dr. Merabet.

A less virulent variant and immune resistance

According to our interlocutor, the slowness of this resurgence is explained by three factors. First, the dominant variant remains Omicron with its sub-variants in circulation in Morocco, BA.1 and BA.2.

Then there remains a natural immunity acquired by the people during the last wave; which affected many more people than the official indicators show, which are essentially monitoring figures to know the trend and are not intended to be exhaustive.

Last point: vaccine immunity, which also plays a role.

About the population’s immunity level is a bulwark which slows the re-flare, it is not high enough to slow it down.

In summary: “the resurgence is confirmed; it can develop into a small wave with less gravity compared to the Omicron wave in January last year, ”says Dr. Merabet. “We will follow the development of the indicators of severe Covidosis over the next two weeks before confirming the trend.”

Vigilance and vaccination

The official, in turn, calls for vigilance because the pandemic is still there. It also calls for “vaccination of vulnerable populations, especially with booster dose”.

“If we have good coverage of the third dose, mainly among the vulnerable population with comorbidities (diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity and asthma), the severity of any new wave will undoubtedly be reduced,” he says.

He also appeals to people symptomatic : “Take the test, put on your masks and isolate yourself to avoid infecting other people.”

Finally, Dr. The Merabet message, which was recently delivered by the Minister of Health: the responsibility, at the moment is individual. Everyone must act at their level to slow down the spread of the virus by adopting barrier movements.

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